Climate Projections for Precipitation and Temperature Indicators in the Douro Wine Region: The Importance of Bias Correction
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2021
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The implications of weather and climate extremes on the viticulture and winemaking sector
can be particularly detrimental and acquire more relevance under a climate change context. A fourmember ensemble of the Regional Climate Model-Global Climate Model chain simulations is used to
evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on indices of extreme temperature and precipitation,
as well as on agroclimatic indices of viticultural suitability in the Douro Wine Region, Portugal, under
current and future climate conditions, following the RCP8.5 anthropogenic radiative forcing scenario.
Historical (1989–2005) and future (2051–2080) periods are considered for this purpose. Although
model outputs are bias-corrected to improve the accuracy of the results, owing to the sensitivity
of the climatic indicators to the specific bias correction method, the performance of the linear and
quantile mapping methods are compared. The results hint at the importance of choosing the most
accurate method (quantile mapping), not only in replicating extremes events but also in reproducing
the accumulated agroclimatic indices. Significant differences between the bias correction methods
are indeed found for the number of extremely warm days (maximum temperature > 35 ◦C), number
of warm spells, number of warm spell days, number of consecutive dry days, the Dryness Index, and
growing season precipitation. The Huglin Index reveals lower sensitivity, thus being more robust to
the choice of the method. Hence, an unsuitable bias correction method may hinder the accuracy of
climate change projections in studies heavily relying on derived extreme indices and agroclimatic
indicators, such as in viticulture. Regarding the climate change signal, significant warming and
drying trends are projected throughout the target region, which is supported by previous studies,
but also accompanied by an increase of intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme events, namely
heatwaves and dry spells. These findings thereby corroborate the need to adopt timely and effective
adaptation strategies by the regional winemaking sector to warrant its future sustainability and
enhance climate resilience.
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bias correction , climate change