A new stochastic dynamic tool to improve the accuracy of mortality
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2013
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Although generally considered environmentally friendly, wind power has been associated with extensive
mortality of birds and bats. In this perspective, there is a need for reliable estimates of fatalities at
wind farms, where the heterogeneity of the basic information, used among environmental assessment
studies, is unlikely to support an accurate universal estimation method. We tested the applicability of the
Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) to estimate bat fatalities, based on multifactorial cause–effect
relationships (by integrating multi-model inference statistical analysis and dynamic modelling) between
mortality estimates, detected fatalities and the selected key-components of the reality, such as the real
number of bat mortalities simulated, the rate of carcasses removal, the searcher efficiency, the monitoring
periodicity and the number of turbines for different realistic scenarios associated with particular wind
farm conditions. Although some existing mortality estimators are considered accurate, the choice of a
given universal formula for all mortality assessments, based on deterministic parameters and assumptions,
may originate unsuspected errors. Therefore, we propose a flexible dynamic modelling framework,
the StDM estimator, where the obtained algorithms are adaptable to the universe of application intended.
The StDM estimator takes into account random, non-constant and scenario dependent parameters, providing
bias-corrected estimates. The StDM estimator was applied for the European wind farm context
and validated in the most cases tested, through the confrontation with independent data. Overall, this
approach is considered a valuable tool to improve the quality of mortality estimates at onshore wind
facilities, within the local, environmental and methodological gradients (including the cases where no
mortality is detected), namely in the scope of environmental impact assessments and general ecological
monitoring programmes.
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Mortality estimators , Bat fatalities , Wind farms , Stochastic dynamic modelling , Environmental impact assessment , General ecological monitoring
Citação
Bastos R. et al, 2013