Sincronização dos ciclos económicos na área do euro, teoria, factos e determinantes
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Data
2008
Autores
Gouveia, Sofia Helena Cerqueira
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Resumo
A teoria das Áreas Monetárias Óptimas (AMO) tem vindo a chamar a atenção para a relevância da sincronização dos ciclos económicos entre os Estados-membros de uma união monetária. Em particular, quanto maior a sincronização dos ciclos, menor o custo de estabilização associado à perda da independência monetária e cambial. Em relação ao impacto de uma união monetária sobre o grau de sincronização dos ciclos, a teoria tem vindo a desenvolver duas versões distintas. Por um lado, a “hipótese de endogeneidade das AMO” assume uma relação positiva entre a integração e a simetria das flutuações do produto, salientando que a partilha de uma moeda comum desencadeia forças que promovem a sincronização. Por outro lado, a “hipótese de especialização” sustenta que o aprofundamento da integração resulta numa maior especialização sectorial, a qual pode implicar uma maior vulnerabilidade a choques assimétricos e conduzir a ciclos menos sincronizados. Esta dissertação centra-se na União Económica e Monetária (UEM) Europeia, fornecendo uma análise descritiva do grau de sincronização entre os ciclos económicos de onze Estados-membros da UEM e o ciclo agregado da área do euro, no período 1980-2006. Ao longo do período amostral, todos os países exibem uma tendência ascendente na sincronização com o ciclo da área do euro, sendo a Grécia a única excepção. No entanto, os primeiros anos de vida da UEM foram marcados por alguma heterogeneidade no comportamento dos ciclos económicos, nomeadamente em países pequenos. Neste estudo, utilizando a Extreme-Bounds Analysis, procura-se ainda identificar as determinantes da sincronização observada na área do euro, no período 1997-2006. Mais concretamente, consideram-se o comércio bilateral, o comércio total, a semelhança na estrutura produtiva, a integração financeira e a semelhança nas políticas orçamentais como principais variáveis candidatas à explicação da sincronização dos ciclos. Confirma-se o efeito positivo do aumento do comércio e da integração financeira na sincronização. Também se conclui por uma relação positiva entre a semelhança da estrutura produtiva e a sincronização. Em contraste, a semelhança das políticas orçamentais não parece ser uma determinante robusta da sincronização dos ciclos. No seu conjunto, os resultados obtidos nesta dissertação indiciam a possibilidade do euro estar a criar um processo virtuoso capaz de tornar mais semelhantes os ciclos económicos dos Estados-membros da UEM.
Over the years, the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas (OCA) has stressed the relevance of the degree of synchronisation of business cycles between member states of a monetary union as a key variable. More specifically, it has been asserted that the closer the degree of cyclical synchronisation, the lower will be the stabilisation cost of given up an independent monetary policy. Theorists have tended to pursue two distinct explanatory paths when assessing the effects of monetary union on the extent of synchronisation between member states’ business cycles. On the one hand, the “OCA endogeneity hypothesis” argues that a positive relation exists between integration and symmetry in product fluctuations, stressing that the sharing a common currency unleashed forces conducive to the synchronisation of cycles. On the other hand, the “specialisation hypothesis” argues that a deepening of integration results in greater sectorial specialisation which in turn may induce greater vulnerability to asymmetric shocks resulting in less synchronised cycles. This dissertation provides an analysis of the degree of synchronisation between the aggregate Euro area and eleven member states business cycles of the European Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1980-2006 period. Throughout the sample period, there is tendency for all countries’ business cycles to exhibit greater synchronisation with the aggregate Euro area cycle, with Greece being the only exception. However, in the very first years of the EMU there was much greater heterogeneity between members-states’ business cycles, in particular the smaller countries. Furthermore, in this study, Extreme Bounds Analysis is used in an attempt to identify the determinants of business cycles synchronisation observed in the euro area during the 1997-2006 period. More specifically, the variables considered the most likely candidates in explaining the degree of synchronisation of business cycles are: bilateral trade, total trade, similarity of industrial structure, financial integration, and similarity in fiscal policies. The analysis confirms that both increases in bilateral trade and the extent of financial integration were positively associated with cycle synchronisation. The results also confirm a positive relationship between similarity of production structures and cycle synchronisation. However, similarities between members’ fiscal policies do not appear to be a determinant of cycle synchronisation. As a whole, the results of this research, as presented in this dissertation, suggest that the adoption of the euro has set in motion an essentially virtuous process that is capable of inducing greater similarity and synchronicity in the business cycles experienced by member states adhering to the EMU.
Over the years, the Theory of Optimal Currency Areas (OCA) has stressed the relevance of the degree of synchronisation of business cycles between member states of a monetary union as a key variable. More specifically, it has been asserted that the closer the degree of cyclical synchronisation, the lower will be the stabilisation cost of given up an independent monetary policy. Theorists have tended to pursue two distinct explanatory paths when assessing the effects of monetary union on the extent of synchronisation between member states’ business cycles. On the one hand, the “OCA endogeneity hypothesis” argues that a positive relation exists between integration and symmetry in product fluctuations, stressing that the sharing a common currency unleashed forces conducive to the synchronisation of cycles. On the other hand, the “specialisation hypothesis” argues that a deepening of integration results in greater sectorial specialisation which in turn may induce greater vulnerability to asymmetric shocks resulting in less synchronised cycles. This dissertation provides an analysis of the degree of synchronisation between the aggregate Euro area and eleven member states business cycles of the European Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1980-2006 period. Throughout the sample period, there is tendency for all countries’ business cycles to exhibit greater synchronisation with the aggregate Euro area cycle, with Greece being the only exception. However, in the very first years of the EMU there was much greater heterogeneity between members-states’ business cycles, in particular the smaller countries. Furthermore, in this study, Extreme Bounds Analysis is used in an attempt to identify the determinants of business cycles synchronisation observed in the euro area during the 1997-2006 period. More specifically, the variables considered the most likely candidates in explaining the degree of synchronisation of business cycles are: bilateral trade, total trade, similarity of industrial structure, financial integration, and similarity in fiscal policies. The analysis confirms that both increases in bilateral trade and the extent of financial integration were positively associated with cycle synchronisation. The results also confirm a positive relationship between similarity of production structures and cycle synchronisation. However, similarities between members’ fiscal policies do not appear to be a determinant of cycle synchronisation. As a whole, the results of this research, as presented in this dissertation, suggest that the adoption of the euro has set in motion an essentially virtuous process that is capable of inducing greater similarity and synchronicity in the business cycles experienced by member states adhering to the EMU.
Descrição
Tese de Doutoramento em Economia