Simulation of alternative scenarios in portuguese wine sector: an agent-based model approach

Costa, Ana Alexandra Vilela Marta Rio
Matias, João Luis Honório
Cerveira, Maria Adelaide da Cruz
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The wine sector is one of the most remarkable industries in Portugal exhibited by the several and important demarcated regions. This paper intends to predict the wine industry farm sustainability of two of the most relevant Portuguese regions, North and Alentejo. The available data on the Portuguese Farm Accountancy Data Network (PTFADN 2001-2012) which compiles social, economic and environmental parameters from 2001 until 2012, allowed us to perform the function fitting with MATLAB and gather information about each variable’s behaviour. That information was then blended into our selected methodology, an ABM that emulates the current North and Alentejo wine-production reality and simulates their further development. Considering the current status of both regions and our model parameters, the 100 years simulation showed that only 38% and 68.2% of the North and Alentejo farms respectively would subsist by the end of the timeframe. By changing the model initial conditions, alternative scenarios were tested and governmental policies were evaluated. The grape selling benefits generally outperform the direct governmental subsidies, to the point that a simple governmental grape selling benefit of 0.054(€/kg) on the Northern region may avoid the extinction of 15.6% of the farms in the next 100 years. The results also showed that the Alentejo region is generally better prepared to deal with increasing labour and environmental costs opposed to the North region, which saw a severe depletion of the farm survival rates during this experiment.
agent-based model , wine sector , performance , sustainability