European grapevine moth in the Douro region: voltinism and climatic scenarios
Data
2021
Autores
Título da revista
ISSN da revista
Título do Volume
Editora
Resumo
The European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is considered to be the main pest
in the vineyards of the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) due to the economic losses it can cause. Damage is
caused by the larvae of this pest feeding on grape clusters, rendering them susceptible to Botrytis cinerea in
mid-season and leading to the development of primary and secondary rot at harvest. Understanding this pest´s
behaviour in the region under future climate scenarios is an increasing challenge. Hence, the present study aims
to assess the potential effects of two likely climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways,
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on Lobesia botrana phenology, particularly at the beginning and at the peak of the three
Lobesia botrana flights. Our findings show that the phenological events generally occur earlier in all locations
and mostly during the long-term period of 2021–2080, being 7 to 12 days in advance in the RCP4.5 scenario, and
15 to 24 days in advance in RCP8.5, when compared to current values (2000–2019) and regardless of the flight
number. These results suggest that a fourth complete flight is likely in the future, and that Lobesia botrana will become
a tetravoltine species in the region. The flight (male catches) and infestation of Lobesia botrana over periods with
daily temperatures above its upper limit of development (> 33 °C) were also analysed during the period 2000–2019
in the targeted sites. The upward trend in the number of days with maximum temperature above 33 °C tended to
be accompanied by a decrease in the total number of male catches during the second and third flights, as well as
a decrease in the percentage of attacked bunches by the second and third generations. Overall, climate change is
expected to influence the phenology of this pest in the DDR.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Lobesia botrana , Douro Demarcated Region