Estratégias de modelação do ecossistema vitícola
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2022-05-27
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A fenologia, quer da traça-da-uva, Lobesia botrana (praga-chave da vinha na Região Demarcada do Douro), quer da videira (seu hospedeiro) tem-se alterado ao longo das últimas décadas em resposta ao aumento da temperatura. Por isso, simulações baseadas em modelos da fenologia são cruciais para prever os possíveis impactos deste aumento de temperatura na fenologia de ambos, conhecimento que é útil para os viticultores planificarem corretamente as várias operações, isto é, operações culturais na vinha, métodos de proteção contra a praga, entre outras. Nesse contexto, o objetivo da presente Tese, foi o de avaliar o potencial impacto das alterações climáticas na fenologia da videira (hospedeiro) e no desenvolvimento de uma das principais pragas da videira, a traça-da-uva, na Região Demarcada do Douro. A partir do objetivo geral, os seguintes pontos foram estudados: i) desenvolvimento de um modelo generalizado (GSM) para cada estado fenológico (abrolhamento, floração e pintor) e sua validação, para o conjunto das castas selecionadas em quatro regiões vitícolas (Douro, Dão, Vinhos Verdes e Lisboa). Consequentemente, pretendeu-se aplicar os modelos numa plataforma de apoio à decisão ao viticultor; ii) avaliação do impacto das alterações climáticas na fenologia do voo de L. botrana (daqui em diante esta terminologia utilizada) na Região Demarcada do Douro, disponibilizando informações úteis para o viticultor otimizar as medidas de proteção contra a praga. Esta abordagem traduziu-se no uso dos modelos para prever os voos de L. botrana em cenários de alterações climáticas (concentração representativa de gases de efeito estufa, RCP4.5 e RCP8.5) para as parcelas selecionadas e avaliar a existência de alterações nas datas de início e pico dos três voos do inseto. Por último, realização de uma análise preliminar, em uma parcela, relativamente à infestação e voo; iii) elaboração de mapas espácio-temporais sobre a fenologia da videira (cv. Touriga Nacional e Touriga Franca) e L. botrana cobrindo toda a Região Demarcada do Douro em malha de ~1 km para o histórico e futuro. Consequentemente, avaliou-se a partir dos modelos da fenologia disponíveis (com dados da região), a interação entre os níveis tróficos (videira e L. botrana). Foram desenvolvidos modelos tendo em consideração dados da fenologia e meteorologia de quatro regiões vitícolas. Para cada estado fenológico, usou-se o centroide dos parâmetros estimados (d e e), e consequentemente os três modelos sigmoide generalizados (GSM) foram construídos (abrolhamento: d = −0.6, e = 8.6; floração: d = −0.6, e = 13.7; pintor: d = −0.5, e = 13.2). Além disso, de acordo com outros estudos, a capacidade preditiva para o abrolhamento é menor relativamente à floração e pintor. As datas simuladas (DOY), correspondentes aos principais eventos do voo (início e pico das capturas de machos em cada voo; três voos) de L. botrana obtiveram-se em parcelas selecionadas para os períodos histórico e futuro, usando os modelos de voo com dados exclusivos da região. A partir dos resultados obtidos, os voos ocorrerão mais cedo em todas as parcelas durante o período de 2021−2080, sendo de 7 a 12 dias de antecipação no cenário RCP4.5, e 15 a 24 dias no RCP8.5, comparativamente com os valores históricos (2000−2019) e independentemente do voo. Os resultados sugerem que, um quarto voo completo será provável no futuro, e que L. botrana tornar-se-á uma espécie tetravoltina na região. Além disso, a validação numa parcela de estudo permitiu verificar que o número total de capturas de machos durante o segundo e terceiro voos diminui, assim como a percentagem de cachos atacados na segunda e terceira gerações, com o aumento do número de dias em que a temperatura máxima esteve acima de 33°C. Em última análise, verificar-se-á uma antecipação nos estados fenológicos da videira (cv. Touriga Nacional e Touriga Franca) em toda a região (numa malha de resolução ~1 km) para 2051–2080 em RCP8.5. Deste modo, o abrolhamento antecipará até 14 dias, a floração e o pintor até 10 dias (principalmente em cotas baixas, junto ao rio Douro). Quanto a L. botrana, uma antecipação generalizada será expectável ocorrer ao longo da região para os três voos, embora o terceiro tenha uma antecipação mais significativa (poderá antecipar até 22 dias no pico). Por último, as simulações sugerem que existirá sincronia entre o terceiro voo e o pintor em ambas as castas (cv. Touriga Nacional e Touriga Franca) em 2051–2080 para RCP8.5.
The phenology of both the grape moth, Lobesia botrana (key pest of the grapevine in the Douro Demarcated Region), and the grapevine (its host) has been changed over the last decades in response to the increase in temperature. Therefore, simulations based on phenology models are crucial to predict the possible impacts of this temperature increase on the phenology of both, a knowledge that is useful for winegrower to plan correctly the several operations, i.e, cultural operations in the vineyard, methods of protection against the pest, among others. In this context, the goal of this Thesis was to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the phenology of the grapevine (host) and development of one of the main pests of the grapevine, the grape moth, in the Douro Demarcated Region. From the general goal, the following points were studied: i) development of a generalized model (GSM) for each phenological stage (budburst, flowering and veraison) and its validation among the set of selected varieties in four wine regions (Douro, Dão, Vinhos Verdes and Lisboa). Consequently, it was intended to apply the models in a decision support platform for the winegrower; ii) assessment of the impact of climate change on the flight phenology of L. botrana (henceforth this is the terminology used) in the Douro Demarcated Region, providing useful information for the winegrower to optimize protection measures against the pest. This approach resulted in the use of models to predict the flights of L. botrana in climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for selected plots and evaluate the existence of changes at the beginning and peak dates of the three flights. Lastly, carrying out a preliminary analysis, in a plot, regarding infestation and flight; iii) elaboration of spatio-temporal maps about the phenology of the grapevine (cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca) and L. botrana covering the entire Douro Demarcated Region at an ~1 km resolution for the historic and future. Consequently, the interaction between trophic levels (grapevine and L. botrana) was evaluated based on the available phenology models (with data from the region). Models were developed taking into account phenology and meteorology data from four wine regions. For each phenological stage, the centroid of the estimated parameters (d and e) was used, and consequently the three generalized sigmoid models (GSM) were constructed (budburst: d = −0.6, e = 8.6; flowering: d = −0.6, e = 13.7; veraison: d = −0.5, e = 13.2). Furthermore, according to other studies, the predictive capacity for budburst is lower compared with flowering and veraison. The simulated dates (DOY), corresponding to the main events of the flight (beginning and peak of the males catch in each flight; three flights) of L. botrana were obtained in selected plots for the historic and future periods, using the flight models with data exclusive of the region. From the results obtained, flights will occur earlier in all plots during the period 2021−2080, being 7 to 12 days in advance in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 15 to 24 days in the RCP8.5, when compared to the historic values (2000−2019) and regardless of the flight. The results suggest that a fourth complete flight is likely in the future and that L. botrana will become a tetravoltine species in the region. Furthermore, the validation in a study plot showed that the total number of male catches during the second and third flights decreased, as well as the percentage of bunches attacked in the second and third generations, with the increase in the number of days above 33°C (maximum temperature). Ultimately, there will be an advancement of grapevine phenological stages (cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca) across the region (at an ~1 km resolution) for 2051–2080 under RCP8.5. In this way, budburst will be advanced up to 14 days, flowering and veraison up to 10 days (mainly at low elevations, along the Douro River). For L. botrana, generalized advancement will be expected to occur throughout the region for the three flights, although the third undergoes a more significant advancement (may advance up to 22 days at the peak). Finally, the simulations suggest that there will be synchrony between the third flight and the veraison in both varieties (cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca) in 2051–2080 under RCP8.5.
The phenology of both the grape moth, Lobesia botrana (key pest of the grapevine in the Douro Demarcated Region), and the grapevine (its host) has been changed over the last decades in response to the increase in temperature. Therefore, simulations based on phenology models are crucial to predict the possible impacts of this temperature increase on the phenology of both, a knowledge that is useful for winegrower to plan correctly the several operations, i.e, cultural operations in the vineyard, methods of protection against the pest, among others. In this context, the goal of this Thesis was to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the phenology of the grapevine (host) and development of one of the main pests of the grapevine, the grape moth, in the Douro Demarcated Region. From the general goal, the following points were studied: i) development of a generalized model (GSM) for each phenological stage (budburst, flowering and veraison) and its validation among the set of selected varieties in four wine regions (Douro, Dão, Vinhos Verdes and Lisboa). Consequently, it was intended to apply the models in a decision support platform for the winegrower; ii) assessment of the impact of climate change on the flight phenology of L. botrana (henceforth this is the terminology used) in the Douro Demarcated Region, providing useful information for the winegrower to optimize protection measures against the pest. This approach resulted in the use of models to predict the flights of L. botrana in climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for selected plots and evaluate the existence of changes at the beginning and peak dates of the three flights. Lastly, carrying out a preliminary analysis, in a plot, regarding infestation and flight; iii) elaboration of spatio-temporal maps about the phenology of the grapevine (cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca) and L. botrana covering the entire Douro Demarcated Region at an ~1 km resolution for the historic and future. Consequently, the interaction between trophic levels (grapevine and L. botrana) was evaluated based on the available phenology models (with data from the region). Models were developed taking into account phenology and meteorology data from four wine regions. For each phenological stage, the centroid of the estimated parameters (d and e) was used, and consequently the three generalized sigmoid models (GSM) were constructed (budburst: d = −0.6, e = 8.6; flowering: d = −0.6, e = 13.7; veraison: d = −0.5, e = 13.2). Furthermore, according to other studies, the predictive capacity for budburst is lower compared with flowering and veraison. The simulated dates (DOY), corresponding to the main events of the flight (beginning and peak of the males catch in each flight; three flights) of L. botrana were obtained in selected plots for the historic and future periods, using the flight models with data exclusive of the region. From the results obtained, flights will occur earlier in all plots during the period 2021−2080, being 7 to 12 days in advance in the RCP4.5 scenario, and 15 to 24 days in the RCP8.5, when compared to the historic values (2000−2019) and regardless of the flight. The results suggest that a fourth complete flight is likely in the future and that L. botrana will become a tetravoltine species in the region. Furthermore, the validation in a study plot showed that the total number of male catches during the second and third flights decreased, as well as the percentage of bunches attacked in the second and third generations, with the increase in the number of days above 33°C (maximum temperature). Ultimately, there will be an advancement of grapevine phenological stages (cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca) across the region (at an ~1 km resolution) for 2051–2080 under RCP8.5. In this way, budburst will be advanced up to 14 days, flowering and veraison up to 10 days (mainly at low elevations, along the Douro River). For L. botrana, generalized advancement will be expected to occur throughout the region for the three flights, although the third undergoes a more significant advancement (may advance up to 22 days at the peak). Finally, the simulations suggest that there will be synchrony between the third flight and the veraison in both varieties (cv. Touriga Nacional and Touriga Franca) in 2051–2080 under RCP8.5.
Descrição
Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Agronómicas e Florestais
Palavras-chave
modelo da fenologia , previsão