Condicionantes da investibilidade em cidades brasileiras selecionadas: um estudo à luz do modelo de regressão linear de efeito misto para o período 2002-2010
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2014-11-10
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Atualmente, os movimentos nos fluxos de investimento direto estrangeiro (IDE) são bastante complexos e estão ligados a uma série de fatores que rodeiam o ambiente competitivo em que as firmas atuam e às características econômicas dos locais acolhedores e remetentes, sendo
objeto de estudo de várias pesquisas, como, por exemplo, Love e Lage-Hidalgo (2000); Barry,
Görg e Strobl (2003); Negri e Acioly (2004); Amal (2006); Galan, González-Benito e Zuñga-
Vincente (2007); Gentvilaité (2010); Figini e Görg (2011); Ramstetter (2011); Kim e Park (2012). Embora esses e outros estudos tenham identificado fatores que impactam na decisão
do IDE de uma empresa multinacional (EMN), os determinantes são geralmente aplicáveis
apenas a contextos específicos, podendo mudar ao longo do tempo. Uma formulação teórica abrangente que ajuda a analisar os padrões de IDE em diferentes regiões geográficas, provou ser ilusória. Logo, compreender as razões que determinam a entrada de IDE em um local
justifica a importância desta área de estudo. Kotler (2007) afirma que os locais competem uns com os outros em três dimensões interdependentes. Uma delas (na qual está embasado o presente estudo) é a investibilidade, definida como a capacidade dos locais em atraírem IDE.
O principal objetivo deste estudo é contribuir para a análise dos determinantes do IDE,
destacadamente em estimar, a partir de variáveis disponíveis e/ou sinalizadas pela literatura
econômica, os principais determinantes dos fluxos de IDE no conjunto das cidades brasileiras
(São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, Fortaleza, Belo Horizonte, Manaus, Curitiba, Recife,
Porto Alegre e Belém), para o período 2002-2010. Inicialmente, a hipótese básica do estudo é que o IDE ingressa nas cidades devido, em grande parte, ao tamanho do seu mercado. A segunda hipótese está relacionada à diversidade brasileira, ou seja, espera-se que o
investimento direto estrangeiro adentre as cidades devido, também, a fatores específicos a elas, tais como: receitas e despesas públicas, a presença de médias e grandes empresas,
investimentos do governo local, Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) municipal, população da cidade, recursos naturais e nível de emprego. A terceira hipótese é de que a investibilidade, do
conjunto das cidades estudadas, apresenta variação ao longo dos anos (2002-2010). O modelo
de regressão linear de efeito misto (Fitzmaurice, Laird & Ware, 2011) e o método de seleção
de variáveis Stepwise (Efroymson, 1960) foram utilizados para identificar entre as 135 variáveis independentes aquelas que atuaram, de forma significativa, influenciando os valores
da investibilidade, no período 2002-2010, nas cidades analisadas. De acordo com os
resultados das estimações (e atendendo às hipóteses elencadas no estudo) ficou evidenciado que nesse período, nas cidades brasileiras analisadas, os principais fatores com maior poder
de influenciar, positivamente, na decisão dos investidores externos quanto à alocação dos seus investimentos foram: receitas e despesas públicas, a existência de grandes empresas e a cotapetróleo
(variável proxy dos recursos naturais). A principal implicação deste estudo consiste
no fato de que as variáveis utilizadas na modelagem estatística, muitas delas mencionadas nas
literaturas teórica e empírica como determinantes do IDE em nível de país, não se mostraram significativas em relação às cidades analisadas, o que se permite afirmar que, além dessas variáveis, outros fatores específicos às cidades são levados em consideração quando da
decisão, por parte do investidor estrangeiro, da alocação do investimento, principalmente em
países continentais como o Brasil, que possui regiões bastante distintas. Tamanha diversidade
vem corroborar a relevância deste estudo e potencializar sua replicação (em outras cidades,
municípios ou regiões) provendo os gestores de EMN de informações que nortearão suas tomadas de decisão quando da alocação do IDE, como também os governos locais quando da elaboração de estratégias a serem utilizadas na atração desse recurso.
Currently, the movements in the direct investment flows (FDI) are quite complex and are linked to a number of factors that surround the competitive environment in which firms operate and economic characteristics of recipients and senders places, being an object of study of several researches, such as Love and Lage-Hidalgo (2000); Barry, Görg and Strobl (2003); Negri and Acioly (2004); Amal (2006); Galan, Gonzalez-Benito and Zuñga-Vincent (2007); Gentvilaité (2010); Figini and Görg (2011); Ramstetter (2011); Kim and Park (2012). Although these and other studies have identified factors that impact on the FDI's decision, of a multinational corporation (MC), the determinants are generally applicable only to specific contexts, and may change over time. A comprehensive theoretical formulation that helps to analyze the patterns of FDI, in different geographic regions, proved to be illusory. Soon, understand the reasons that determine the entry of FDI into a location justifies the importance of this area of study. Kotler (2007) states that the locals compete with each other on three interdependent dimensions. One of them (which is the foundation of all this study) is the investibility, defined as the ability of the sites in attracting FDI. The main objective of this study is to contribute to the analysis of the determinants of FDI, notably in estimate, from variables available and or flagged by the economic literature the main determinants of FDI flows in the brazilian cities of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, Fortaleza, Belo Horizonte, Manaus, Curitiba, Recife, Porto Alegre and Belem, in the period 2002-2010. Initially, the basic hypothesis of the study is that the FDI enters in the cities due, largely, to the size of its market. The second hypothesis is related to the Brazilian diversity, that is, it is expected that the foreign direct investment to settle the towns due to factors specific to them, such as: budget and tax revenues, budgetary and tax expenditure, the presence of medium and large companies, local government investment, gross domestic product (GDP), population, natural resources and employment. The third hypothesis is that the investibility in all of the cities studied, variation over the years (2002-2010). The linear regression model of mixed-effect (Fitzmaurice, Laird Ware 2011) and the Stepwise variable selection method (Efroymson, 1960) were used to identify among the 135 independent variables those that acted significantly influencing the values of investibility, in the period 2002-2010, in the cities analyzed. According to the results of the estimates (and given the assumptions listed in the study) was evidenced that during this period, in brazilian cities examined, the main factors with greater power to influence, positively, on the decision of foreign investors regarding the allocation of their investments were: the local budget revenue, the existence of large companies and the oil quota (proxy variable of natural resources). The main implication of this study consists in the fact that the variables used in statistical modeling, theoretical and empirical literatures on mentioned as determinants of FDI in the country level, there were not significant in terms of the cities analyzed, which allows to say that in addition to these specific factors to other variables are taken into consideration when the decision by the foreign investor, investment allocation, especially in continental countries such as Brazil, which has very different regions. Such diversity reinforces the relevance of this study and enhance its replication (in other cities, counties or regions) providing information in managers will dominate their decision-making when the allocation of the FDI, as well as local governments when devising strategies to be used in the attraction of this feature.
Currently, the movements in the direct investment flows (FDI) are quite complex and are linked to a number of factors that surround the competitive environment in which firms operate and economic characteristics of recipients and senders places, being an object of study of several researches, such as Love and Lage-Hidalgo (2000); Barry, Görg and Strobl (2003); Negri and Acioly (2004); Amal (2006); Galan, Gonzalez-Benito and Zuñga-Vincent (2007); Gentvilaité (2010); Figini and Görg (2011); Ramstetter (2011); Kim and Park (2012). Although these and other studies have identified factors that impact on the FDI's decision, of a multinational corporation (MC), the determinants are generally applicable only to specific contexts, and may change over time. A comprehensive theoretical formulation that helps to analyze the patterns of FDI, in different geographic regions, proved to be illusory. Soon, understand the reasons that determine the entry of FDI into a location justifies the importance of this area of study. Kotler (2007) states that the locals compete with each other on three interdependent dimensions. One of them (which is the foundation of all this study) is the investibility, defined as the ability of the sites in attracting FDI. The main objective of this study is to contribute to the analysis of the determinants of FDI, notably in estimate, from variables available and or flagged by the economic literature the main determinants of FDI flows in the brazilian cities of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, Fortaleza, Belo Horizonte, Manaus, Curitiba, Recife, Porto Alegre and Belem, in the period 2002-2010. Initially, the basic hypothesis of the study is that the FDI enters in the cities due, largely, to the size of its market. The second hypothesis is related to the Brazilian diversity, that is, it is expected that the foreign direct investment to settle the towns due to factors specific to them, such as: budget and tax revenues, budgetary and tax expenditure, the presence of medium and large companies, local government investment, gross domestic product (GDP), population, natural resources and employment. The third hypothesis is that the investibility in all of the cities studied, variation over the years (2002-2010). The linear regression model of mixed-effect (Fitzmaurice, Laird Ware 2011) and the Stepwise variable selection method (Efroymson, 1960) were used to identify among the 135 independent variables those that acted significantly influencing the values of investibility, in the period 2002-2010, in the cities analyzed. According to the results of the estimates (and given the assumptions listed in the study) was evidenced that during this period, in brazilian cities examined, the main factors with greater power to influence, positively, on the decision of foreign investors regarding the allocation of their investments were: the local budget revenue, the existence of large companies and the oil quota (proxy variable of natural resources). The main implication of this study consists in the fact that the variables used in statistical modeling, theoretical and empirical literatures on mentioned as determinants of FDI in the country level, there were not significant in terms of the cities analyzed, which allows to say that in addition to these specific factors to other variables are taken into consideration when the decision by the foreign investor, investment allocation, especially in continental countries such as Brazil, which has very different regions. Such diversity reinforces the relevance of this study and enhance its replication (in other cities, counties or regions) providing information in managers will dominate their decision-making when the allocation of the FDI, as well as local governments when devising strategies to be used in the attraction of this feature.
Descrição
Tese de Doutoramento em Gestão
Palavras-chave
Gestão local , Cidades brasileiras , 2002-2010 , Investimento , Modelo linear , Investimento Direto Estrangeiro