Fluxos migratórios e ciclos económicos: uma análise aplicada à União Europeia
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2016-01-08
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O estudo da relação entre os ciclos dos fluxos migratórios e do produto real das economias tem especial relevância no contexto atual da realidade europeia e, em particular, do caso português.
O contributo da literatura em relação a esta temática é relativamente extenso. As diversas teorias podem ser divididas tendo em conta três períodos. O primeiro é referente à elaboração da teoria clássica, na qual Ravenstein foi o grande percursor com a elaboração de algumas leis migratórias, as quais são a base das restantes teorias migratórias até agora elaboradas. O segundo é composto pelas teorias neoclássicas de abordagem macro-social e micro-social. O terceiro centra-se na nova abordagem económica do mercado laboral.
Neste trabalho, a caracterização dos fluxos migratórios é efetuada tendo em conta a sua tipologia (quanto à localização, às razões e à duração), as suas principais determinantes (vantagens comparativas dos países, processos de globalização e de integração económica, e custos inerentes) e a importância para o desenvolvimento das economias (nomeadamente, as externalidades positivas e negativas para os países de origem e de destino).
A relação empírica entre os ciclos dos fluxos migratórios e do produto real é analisada com base nos dados dos 15 países que constituíam a União Europeia (UE) antes do alargamento de 2004. Para efeitos de controlo, considera-se ainda um grupo de 4 países fora da UE. O período amostral decorre entre 1970 e 2010. Inicialmente são examinadas as estatísticas descritivas das duas variáveis. De seguida, estimam-se coeficientes de correlação de Spearman para aferir o grau de sincronização entre os ciclos. Este estudo é conduzido para todo o período e por subperíodos, os quais foram escolhidos tendo em conta dois eventos de relevância na história da UE: a introdução do euro e a atual crise económica e financeira.
Face aos resultados das correlações entre os ciclos económicos e os ciclos dos fluxos migratórios, para o período total, parece ser possível concluir que a maioria dos países exibe uma correlação estatisticamente significativa de valor positivo (comportamento procíclico), mas de valor fraco a moderado, em termos contemporâneos ou com o desfasamento de um período. Da análise por subperíodos decorre alguma evidência de que a entrada para a UEM implicou uma alteração na associação cíclica entre as duas variáveis para alguns países.
A caracterização efetuada dos fenómenos de emigração e imigração em Portugal é reveladora dos seguintes aspetos centrais: (1) a emigração tem vindo a aumentar desde 2009, é composta principalmente por emigrantes temporários do género masculino e, desde 2008, que os emigrantes pertencem sobretudo à faixa etária entre os 15 e os 24 anos; (2) as remessas da emigração têm vindo a sofrer um aumento e são na sua maioria oriundas da Europa; (3) mais recentemente, a emigração tem sido redirecionada para países como Angola, como se constata a partir do aumento das remessas provenientes deste país; (4) a imigração apresenta-se maioritariamente composta pelo género masculino, exibindo um crescimento contínuo desde 1980 até 2008, tendo vindo a decrescer desde então; (5) os países com maior percentagem de população estrangeira em relação à população residente são o Luxemburgo, seguido da Suiça e da Bélgica, sendo que Portugal ocupa um lugar de pouco relevo.
The study of the relation between the cycles of migration flows and the real output of the economy is of particular relevance in the current European reality and, in particular, in the Portuguese case. The contribution of the literature regarding this subject is relatively extent. The various theories can be divided taking into account three periods. The first is related to the development of the classical theory, in which Ravenstein was the great forerunner to the development of some immigration laws, which are the basis of the remaining migratory theories so far developed. The second consists of the neoclassical theories on a macro-social and micro-social approach. The third focuses on the new economic approach to the labor market. In this work, the characterization of migration is carried out with regard to its type (for location, the reasons and duration), its main determinants (comparative advantages of the countries, globalization processes and economic integration costs and benefits) and the importance to the development of the economies (in particular, the positive and negative externalities for the countries of origin and destination). The empirical relation between the migration flows cycles and the actual product is analyzed based on data from the 15 countries that formed the European Union (EU) before the 2004 enlargement. For control purposes, it is also taken in account a group of four countries outside the EU. The sample period is between 1970 and 2010. Initially, the descriptive statistics of the two variables are examined. Then, it is estimated the Spearman correlation coefficients to measure their degree of synchronization between the cycles. This study is conducted for the entire period and sub-periods, which were chosen taking into account two important events in the history of the EU: the euro introduction and the current economic and financial crisis. Given the results of the correlations between economic cycles and cycles of migration flows for the entire period, it seems possible to conclude that the majority of countries present a statistically significant positive value (procyclical behavior), but with a weak or moderate value, in contemporary terms or with a lag of one period. Analysis by subperiods gives some evidence that the entry to EMU led to a change in the cyclical association between the two variables for some countries. The characterization carried out of the phenomena of emigration and immigration in Portugal reveals the following key aspects: (1) migration has been increasing since 2009, it is mainly composed of temporary male emigrants and, since 2008, that the emigrants belong mainly to the age group between 15 and 24 years, (2) emigration remittances have been experiencing an increase and are mostly from Europe, (3) most recently, emigration has been redirected to countries like Angola, as observed by the increase in remittances from this country, (4) immigration is mainly composed by males, showing a continuous growth from 1980 to 2008, having been decreasing since then, (5) the countries with the highest percentage of foreign population in relation to the resident population are Luxembourg, followed by Switzerland and Belgium, and Portugal holds a position of little importance.
The study of the relation between the cycles of migration flows and the real output of the economy is of particular relevance in the current European reality and, in particular, in the Portuguese case. The contribution of the literature regarding this subject is relatively extent. The various theories can be divided taking into account three periods. The first is related to the development of the classical theory, in which Ravenstein was the great forerunner to the development of some immigration laws, which are the basis of the remaining migratory theories so far developed. The second consists of the neoclassical theories on a macro-social and micro-social approach. The third focuses on the new economic approach to the labor market. In this work, the characterization of migration is carried out with regard to its type (for location, the reasons and duration), its main determinants (comparative advantages of the countries, globalization processes and economic integration costs and benefits) and the importance to the development of the economies (in particular, the positive and negative externalities for the countries of origin and destination). The empirical relation between the migration flows cycles and the actual product is analyzed based on data from the 15 countries that formed the European Union (EU) before the 2004 enlargement. For control purposes, it is also taken in account a group of four countries outside the EU. The sample period is between 1970 and 2010. Initially, the descriptive statistics of the two variables are examined. Then, it is estimated the Spearman correlation coefficients to measure their degree of synchronization between the cycles. This study is conducted for the entire period and sub-periods, which were chosen taking into account two important events in the history of the EU: the euro introduction and the current economic and financial crisis. Given the results of the correlations between economic cycles and cycles of migration flows for the entire period, it seems possible to conclude that the majority of countries present a statistically significant positive value (procyclical behavior), but with a weak or moderate value, in contemporary terms or with a lag of one period. Analysis by subperiods gives some evidence that the entry to EMU led to a change in the cyclical association between the two variables for some countries. The characterization carried out of the phenomena of emigration and immigration in Portugal reveals the following key aspects: (1) migration has been increasing since 2009, it is mainly composed of temporary male emigrants and, since 2008, that the emigrants belong mainly to the age group between 15 and 24 years, (2) emigration remittances have been experiencing an increase and are mostly from Europe, (3) most recently, emigration has been redirected to countries like Angola, as observed by the increase in remittances from this country, (4) immigration is mainly composed by males, showing a continuous growth from 1980 to 2008, having been decreasing since then, (5) the countries with the highest percentage of foreign population in relation to the resident population are Luxembourg, followed by Switzerland and Belgium, and Portugal holds a position of little importance.
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Dissertação de Mestrado em Economia
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Corrente migratória , Ciclos económicos , União Europeia