A influência das crises nas exportações de vinho do Porto
Data
2018-03-17
Autores
Título da revista
ISSN da revista
Título do Volume
Editora
Resumo
A recente crise económica e financeira teve um grande impacto no comércio internacional, sendo que entre o final do ano 2008 e o início do ano 2009 o comércio internacional sofreu uma queda de aproximadamente 15%. Tendo em conta os desequilíbrios já existentes das balanças comerciais dos estados-membros da Área Euro, esta crise afetou ainda mais acentuadamente o comércio internacional. Outro fator que teve impacto no comércio internacional foi, de certo modo, a ascensão dos países emergentes que afetaram a quota de mercado das exportações dos outros países do mundo. O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar os efeitos da recente crise económica e financeira na dinâmica das exportações do vinho do Porto. Este estudo procura contribuir para a literatura empírica sobre o comércio internacional de vinho, reespecificando o modelo gravitacional típico de dados agregados dos países de forma a permitir analisar os efeitos da recente crise nas determinantes das exportações de um vinho fortificado apenas produzido em Portugal, o qual representa, em valor, cerca de 42% das exportações de vinho português, em 2016. Neste estudo foi aplicado o modelo gravitacional aumentado das exportações de vinho do Porto, de Portugal para os 12 maiores países de destino, representando aproximadamente 91% das exportações totais de vinho do Porto, no período compreendido entre 2001 e 2016. Através de uma análise em painel estimou-se o impacto do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), do PIB per capita, das taxas de câmbio, das tarifas ad valorem, da distância geográfica ao país importador, da língua comum e da fronteira marítima, nas exportações de vinho do Porto, medidas em valor e em volume. Os resultados revelam que as exportações de vinho do Porto: (i) no subperíodo précrise são positivamente determinadas pelo PIB per capita, em valor e volume, e pela língua comum, em valor, enquanto que as exportações são negativamente determinadas pela taxa de câmbio e pela ausência de costa marítima, em valor; e (ii) no subperíodo da crise são negativamente determinadas pela taxa de câmbio, em valor e volume.
The recent economic and financial crisis had a major impact on international trade, and between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, international trade fell by approximately 15%. In view of the imbalances already existing in the euro area member states' trade balances, this crisis has further affected international trade. Another factor that had an impact on international trade was to some extent the rise of emerging countries that affected the market share of exports from other countries in the world. The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the effects of the recent economic and financial crisis on the dynamics of Port wine exports. This study seeks to contribute to the empirical literature on international wine trade by re-specifying the typical gravitational model of aggregate data in order to analyze the effects of the recent crisis on the export determinants of a fortified wine produced only in Portugal that represents, in value, about 42% of Portuguese wine exports in 2016. In this study the extended gravity model was applied to the data of the exports of the 12 largest wine importing countries of Port wine, representing approximately 91% of total exports of Port wine in the period between 2001 and 2016 and in the subperiods from 2001 to 2008 and from 2009 to 2016. The impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita, exchange rates, ad valorem tariffs, geographical distance to the importing country, the common language and the maritime border were estimated through a panel analysis on Port wine exports, measured in value and volume. The results show that Port wine exports: (i) in the pre-crisis subperiod are positively determined by GDP per capita, in value and volume, and by the common language, in value, while exports are negatively determined by the exchange rate and the absence of maritime coast in value; and (ii) in the subperiod of the crisis are negatively determined by the exchange rate, in value and volume.
The recent economic and financial crisis had a major impact on international trade, and between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, international trade fell by approximately 15%. In view of the imbalances already existing in the euro area member states' trade balances, this crisis has further affected international trade. Another factor that had an impact on international trade was to some extent the rise of emerging countries that affected the market share of exports from other countries in the world. The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the effects of the recent economic and financial crisis on the dynamics of Port wine exports. This study seeks to contribute to the empirical literature on international wine trade by re-specifying the typical gravitational model of aggregate data in order to analyze the effects of the recent crisis on the export determinants of a fortified wine produced only in Portugal that represents, in value, about 42% of Portuguese wine exports in 2016. In this study the extended gravity model was applied to the data of the exports of the 12 largest wine importing countries of Port wine, representing approximately 91% of total exports of Port wine in the period between 2001 and 2016 and in the subperiods from 2001 to 2008 and from 2009 to 2016. The impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita, exchange rates, ad valorem tariffs, geographical distance to the importing country, the common language and the maritime border were estimated through a panel analysis on Port wine exports, measured in value and volume. The results show that Port wine exports: (i) in the pre-crisis subperiod are positively determined by GDP per capita, in value and volume, and by the common language, in value, while exports are negatively determined by the exchange rate and the absence of maritime coast in value; and (ii) in the subperiod of the crisis are negatively determined by the exchange rate, in value and volume.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Exportações , Vinho do Porto