Testing the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) as a management tool in a shallow temperate estuary of south Europe (Mondego, Portugal).
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2008
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A long-term monitoring program has been carried out since the early 1990s in the Mondego
estuary, on Portugal’s west coast, which is presently under heavy human pressure.
In this shallow warm-temperate estuary, a significant macroalgal proliferation has been
observed, which is a clear sign of nutrient enrichment. As a result of competition with
algae, the extension of the seagrass meadows (mainly Zostera noltii) has been reduced. The
present paper examined the applicability of a holistic Stochastic Dynamic Methodology
(StDM) in predicting the tendencies of trophic key-components (macrophytes, macroalgae,
benthic macroinvertebrate and wading birds) as a response to the changes in estuarine
environmental conditions. The StDM is a sequential modelling process developed in order
to predict the ecological status of changed ecosystems, from whichmanagement strategies
can be designed. The data used in the dynamic model construction included true gradients
of environmental changes and was sampled from January 1993 to September 1995 and
from December 1998 to December 2005. The dynamic model developed was preceded by
a conventional multivariate statistical procedure performed to discriminate the significant
relationships between the selected ecological components. The model validation was based
on independent data collected from January 1996 to January 1997 and from February 1999 to
April 2000 for all the state variables considered. Overall, the simulation results are encouraging
since they seem to demonstrate the StDM reliability in capturing the trophic dynamics
of the studied estuary, by predicting the behavioural pattern for the most part of the components
selected, with a focus on the Zostera noltii meadows recovery after the implementation
of important management measures.
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Stochastic Dynamic Methodology , Eutrophication , Estuarine ecosystems , Trophic interactions , Management tools
Citação
Silva-Santos P. et al, 2008