Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal.
Data
2011
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Resumo
This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive
exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The
distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local
environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic
disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process
(stochastic dynamic methodology—StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends
were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of
growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities
with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model
simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology.
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Stochastic dynamic methodology , Invasive plant richness , Geophysical parameters , Socio-economic trends , Disturbance ecology
Citação
Santos M. et al, 2011