How good are the ecological assumptions and predictions made in the past? Insights from a dynamic modelling approach applied to changing landscapes

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dc.contributor.authorSantos, Mario Gabriel Santiago Dospt_PT
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Sarapt_PT
dc.contributor.authorBastos, Ritapt_PT
dc.contributor.authorCarvalho, Diogopt_PT
dc.contributor.authorCabral, João Alexandre Ferreira Abel Dos ...pt_PT
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-29T15:23:54Z
dc.date.available2019-01-29T15:23:54Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.date.updated2019-01-28T13:37:24Z
dc.description.abstractWorldwide landscape changes and the uncertainty about its impacts on species abundances, distributions and on ecosystems structure and functioning, have been increasing the value of modelling tools in a very obvious way. Thirteen years ago, the first holistic stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) application was published (Ecological Indicators 3(4), 285–303 by Santos and Cabral (2004)) intended for predicting ecological indicators trends in face of realistic scenarios of land use/land cover changes. The application of this StDM framework provided some basis to simulate landscape changes and predict the subsequent response of pertinent ecological indicators. Nevertheless, the results reliability could only be evaluated with subsequent independent information checking. In this work, based on independent data obtained thirteen years after, we compare the simulated land use changes and predicted responses of the selected ecological indicators with the respective real trends. The comparisons made confirmed that the implemented scenario was realistic and the ecological indicators’ response mostly accurate. This allowed for demonstrating the proposed frameworks potential and its use in landscape planning and managing of agro-environmental measures. Our approach also provides a promising and intuitive baseline to support risk assessments for land use changes, derived from ecological models linked with ecological monitoring, crucial to guide decision makers and environmental managers.pt_PT
dc.identifier1470160Xen_US
dc.identifier.citationSantos, Mário; Silva, Sara; Bastos, Rita; Carvalho, Diogo; Cabral, João Alexandre. How good are the ecological assumptions and predictions made in the past? Insights from a dynamic modelling approach applied to changing landscapes, Ecological Indicators, 90, 90, 226-230, 2018.pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn1470-160X
dc.identifier.otherhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.03
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10348/9064
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.rightsopen accesspt_PT
dc.subjectPasserinespt_PT
dc.subjectLandscapept_PT
dc.subjectStochastic dynamic methodologypt_PT
dc.subjectEcological indicatorspt_PT
dc.subjectEcological models’ evaluationpt_PT
dc.titleHow good are the ecological assumptions and predictions made in the past? Insights from a dynamic modelling approach applied to changing landscapespt_PT
dc.typejournal articlept_PT
degois.publication.firstPage226pt_PT
degois.publication.lastPage230pt_PT
degois.publication.titleEcological Indicatorspt_PT
degois.publication.volume90pt_PT
dspace.entity.typePublicationen
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