Development of a stochastic dynamic model for ecological indicators’ prediction in changed Mediterranean agroecosystems of north-eastern Portugal.

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dc.contributor.authorSantos, Mário
dc.contributor.authorCabral, João Alexandre
dc.date.accessioned2015-03-17T15:40:22Z
dc.date.available2015-03-17T15:40:22Z
dc.date.issued2004
dc.description.abstractA holistic stochastic dynamic model was developed by focusing on the interactions between conceptually isolated keycomponents, such as local passerine guilds and changes in habitat conditions, in Mediterranean agroecosystems of the “Terra Quente Transmontana region” (north-eastern Portugal). The ecological integrity of the typical patchwork of this region, with respect to land use, can be partly assessed by the observation of the occurrence of passerine guilds. These important indicators and state variables are the underlying database of our model. This model aimed the prediction of the ecological changes which can be expected when olive orchards are being intensified. The model proposedwas preceded by a conventional multivariate statistical procedure (stepwise multiple regression analysis) performed to discriminate the significant relationships between guild richness and environmental variables. Since this statistical analysis is static, the dataset recorded from the field included true gradients of habitat changes. The model parameters were estimated from the results of the stochastic treatment and from regional data regarding tendencies within the use of land. A period of 50 years was considered. The final model provided some basis to analyse the responses of passerine guilds to the environmental scenarios that will characterize the new agroecosystems of the region. The model simulations were incorporated into a Geographical Information System (GIS) approach. The results of the simulation revealed a structural drift within the different guild richness in response to the expected gradient of habitat changes. The possible local extinction of several species within the less well-represented guilds, such as the steppe passerine species, may be associated with a predictable reduction in ecological integrity of the typical agroecosystems. Therefore, a newstructure of the passerine communities indicates that future agroecosystems will diverge from the initial or actual ecological state. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.pt
dc.identifier.citationSantos M. and Cabral J. A., 2004pt
dc.identifier.otherdoi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2003.11.007
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10348/4326
dc.language.isoengpt
dc.peerreviewedyespt
dc.relation.ispartofCITAB - Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicaspt
dc.relation.ispartofseries3;4
dc.rightsrestricted accesspt
dc.subjectOlive orchardspt
dc.subjectMediterranean agroecosystemspt
dc.subjectEcological integrity indicatorspt
dc.subjectPasserine functional guildspt
dc.subjectStochastic dynamicpt
dc.titleDevelopment of a stochastic dynamic model for ecological indicators’ prediction in changed Mediterranean agroecosystems of north-eastern Portugal.pt
dc.typejournal articlept
degois.publication.firstPage285pt
degois.publication.lastPage303pt
degois.publication.locationElsevierpt
degois.publication.titleEcological Indicatorspt
dspace.entity.typePublicationen
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