Simulating the impact of socio-economic trends on threatened Iberian wolf populations (Canis lupus signatus) in North-eastern Portugal.
Data
2007
Autores
Título da revista
ISSN da revista
Título do Volume
Editora
Resumo
The IP4 highway and the newprojected road network have been changing the critical Iberian wolf (Canis lupus signatus) habitat
in Tra´s-os-Montes eAlto Douro region (north-eastern Portugal).Aholistic stochastic dynamic methodology (SDM)was developed
for predicting changes in Iberian wolf population due to the new highways construction, increasing road traffic density and
urbanization. The ecological indicators for wolf presence and abundance were estimated indirectly from the density of attacks on
livestock. The low density of wild ungulates in the area makes livestock the main source of food for wolves. These indirect
ecological indicators and state variables are the underlying database of our SDM model. This model focus on the interactions
between conceptually isolated key-components, such as the density of attacks on livestock and changes in habitat conditions,
providing some basis to analyse the responses of wolf populations to the environmental scenarios thatwill characterize the region in
the future. The model proposed was preceded by a conventional multivariate statistical procedure (stepwise multiple regression
analysis) performed to discriminate the significant relationships between livestock attacks and socio-environmental variables. The
holistic parameters of the model were estimated from the results of the statistical treatment and from regional data regarding
tendencies within the use of land. The simulation results demonstrate the SDM capability in capturing the trends of this changing
region, namely by showing a dramatically decrease of wolf attacks in the region for the next decade.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Indirect ecological indicators , Livestock attacks , Road construction , Stochastic dynamic methodology , Iberian wolf
Citação
Santos M. et al, 2007