Simulation of alternative scenarios in portuguese wine sector: an agent-based model approach

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dc.contributor.authorGalindro, Aníbalpt_PT
dc.contributor.authorCosta, Ana Alexandra Vilela Marta Riopt_PT
dc.contributor.authorSantos, Cátiapt_PT
dc.contributor.authorMatias, João Luis Honóriopt_PT
dc.contributor.authorCerveira, Maria Adelaide da Cruzpt_PT
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-18T10:45:00Z
dc.date.available2020-11-18T10:45:00Z
dc.date.issued2018-12
dc.description.abstractThe wine sector is one of the most remarkable industries in Portugal exhibited by the several and important demarcated regions. This paper intends to predict the wine industry farm sustainability of two of the most relevant Portuguese regions, North and Alentejo. The available data on the Portuguese Farm Accountancy Data Network (PTFADN 2001-2012) which compiles social, economic and environmental parameters from 2001 until 2012, allowed us to perform the function fitting with MATLAB and gather information about each variable’s behaviour. That information was then blended into our selected methodology, an ABM that emulates the current North and Alentejo wine-production reality and simulates their further development. Considering the current status of both regions and our model parameters, the 100 years simulation showed that only 38% and 68.2% of the North and Alentejo farms respectively would subsist by the end of the timeframe. By changing the model initial conditions, alternative scenarios were tested and governmental policies were evaluated. The grape selling benefits generally outperform the direct governmental subsidies, to the point that a simple governmental grape selling benefit of 0.054(€/kg) on the Northern region may avoid the extinction of 15.6% of the farms in the next 100 years. The results also showed that the Alentejo region is generally better prepared to deal with increasing labour and environmental costs opposed to the North region, which saw a severe depletion of the farm survival rates during this experiment.pt_PT
dc.identifier.isbn978-9963-711-68-0
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10348/10271
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.relation.ispartofCETRAD - Centro de Estudos Transdisciplinares para o Desenvolvimentopt_PT
dc.rightsopen accesspt_PT
dc.subjectagent-based modelpt_PT
dc.subjectwine sectorpt_PT
dc.subjectperformancept_PT
dc.subjectsustainabilitypt_PT
dc.titleSimulation of alternative scenarios in portuguese wine sector: an agent-based model approachpt_PT
dc.typeconferenceObjectpt_PT
degois.publication.firstPage3pt_PT
degois.publication.lastPage18pt_PT
degois.publication.locationMaltapt_PT
degois.publication.title11th Annual Conference of the EuroMed Academy of Businesspt_PT
dspace.entity.typePublicationen
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